Watling: Australian recession is still my base case

Back in February, Chris Watling, CEO and Chief Market Strategist at Longview Economics, wrote that a recession in Australia was likely, and that rates would be cut to zero if this happened. While he acknowledges that a lot has changed in Australia since then - not the least of which being the surprise re-election of the coalition government - his base case remains that a recession is on the way.

"The basic thesis on recession is that housing was in a bust phase, and the bust phase will probably be bigger than 10-15% peak to trough. Obviously we're having a bounce in house prices now that questions that, I personally think it's probably a head-fake."

In the latest episode of The Rules of Investing podcast, Chris discusses his views on Australia in-depth. He also shares why the outlook for the US is more positive, shares his favourite chart in the world today, and discusses eight key asset bubbles globally.

Links and charts discussed:

• Fully automated, luxury communism. By Aaron Bastani.

Time stamps

• 2:37 - The challenges and joys of being non consensus
• 3:24 - Tracking the performance of macro calls
• 5:16 - Chris shares his favourite chart in the world today
• 9:26 - Are low rates here to stay?
• 11:18 - A high conviction trading idea
• 15:16 - Is Australia heading for recession?
• 19:37 - Is QE on the cards in Australia?
• 23:16 - Can the US avoid recession?
• 24:42 - Why inflation won't be an issue in the near future
• 29:42 - The eight key asset bubbles globally
• 31:15 - The asset bubbles that are most important to Australia
• 34:16 - What is the current account balance, and why does it matter?
• 36:53 - China's current account balance, and what it's telling us
• 38:53 - Chris answers our three favourite questions

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