What might net zero look like for Australia
A landmark report by Net Zero Australia has modelled what Australia’s pathway to net zero by 2050 might look like. It outlines what we as a nation will need to do to reach net zero, which includes delivering an energy transformation unprecedented in scale and pace; transforming our exports to be an essential contribution to global decarbonisation; and investing in our people and land to reduce impacts and share benefits.
In this Special report, we outline some of the key findings from the report, the steps that will need to be taken to reach net zero, and what this means for investors.
Painting a picture of net zero for everyday Australians
Net Zero Australia, a partnership between the University of Melbourne, University of Queensland, Princeton University, and Nous Group, released its final findings report on 19 April 2023. The report is the culmination of a multi-year study, whose primary objective is to provide rigorous and independent analysis of how Australia might achieve net-zero emissions for the domestic economy by 2050 and export economy by 2060.
Using the same methodology that Princeton University used for the 2020 Net-Zero America study, which ultimately underpinned the Inflation Reduction Act, the independent report models various scenarios of achieving net zero and models the sheer size and scale of what is required to achieve a net-zero future.
“There is no doubt what is required is overwhelming, but the report’s aim was to really paint a picture of what a net zero future looks like on the ground for everyday Australians”, said Professor Michael Brear from the University of Melbourne, one of the key contributors to the report.
The scale, complexity and cost of the net-zero challenge won’t be easy
There will need to be a rapid rollout of renewable energy infrastructure, new transmission lines, storage batteries, electric vehicles, electric charging facilities, heat pumps in homes and businesses and much more. According to Brear, “The results of the report are unprecedented in their detail, rigour and transparency, the aim is to better inform the national debate with solid evidence about the diverse preference of the Australian community and the impacts that each scenario will have”.
The report underlines the scale, complexity, and cost of the net-zero challenge, which it describes as a “once in a generation, globally significant, and nation-building” opportunity. The report explains that the transformation of the domestic economy will enable Australia to be a key player in global decarbonisation, thanks to exports of green energy and critical minerals.
Trillions of dollars will be needed to upgrade, expand, and replace the grid—but also to replace Australia’s lucrative fossil fuel export industries, such as coal, oil and gas, with clean energy substitutes, such as green hydrogen.
Fossil fuel generation to slump, large-scale solar to provide most of Australia’s energy supply
The report modelled straight-line reduction pathways to get to net zero for both domestic emissions by 2050 and fossil fuel export emissions by 2060 (the 2060 commitment reflects commitments by major trading partners) using six different scenarios. The report acknowledges that in every scenario, fossil fuel generation in Australia will fall by 80% by 2030 (Renew Economy (2023), Net zero study report). In almost every scenario, large-scale solar provides the vast majority of Australia’s energy supply by 2050.
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