What’s ahead for investors in the second half of 2024 (and beyond)?

As a new financial year unfurls ahead of us, the best and brightest from the investment world have been crystal ball-gazing, delivering their insights on what they believe lies ahead for markets.

Bridging the divide between professional investors and the retail investing audience is a key part of our mission here at Livewire Markets. We spend countless hours each year quizzing financial industry insiders - including portfolio managers, wealth managers, and economists – about the investing topics that interest you.

We’re also privileged to receive frequent market updates from the investment community. In addition to the regular February and August earnings seasons for ASX companies, the mid-point of the calendar year is a popular milestone for the publication of such reports.

In the following, we’ve collated a raft of the mid-year outlook statements Livewire has received so far.

1. Goldman Sachs: 2024 midyear outlook: building portfolios for a more volatile macroeconomic backdrop – A podcast where senior team members inside Goldman Sachs’  discuss their outlooks for asset classes and portfolios heading into the second half of the year, as well as medium- and longer-term asset allocation shifts investors might make to accommodate a more dynamic macroeconomic backdrop.
2. J.P. Morgan Asset Management: 2024 Mid-Year Investment Outlook – A rising tide lifting most investment boats – "The US economy looks set to see a continuing gradual moderation in economic growth, jobs and inflation, providing a rising tide to support most long-term risk assets."
3. Morgan Stanley: 2024 Midyear Investment Outlook – Steady Growth Boosts Stocks and Bonds – "Investors may look to European and Japanese equities, which potentially could offer up to 18% returns, and corporate credit and agency mortgage-backed securities for opportunity amid a backdrop of steady growth, declining inflation and interest rate cuts."
4. HSBC Global Private Banking: H2 2024 Investment Outlook – HSBC Global Private Banking expects the improving global economic cycle, broadening earnings growth and central bank rate cuts will bring plenty of opportunities to put cash to work in quality bonds and equities.
5. Barclays Investment Bank: Q3 2024 Global Outlook – Calm on the surface – This is still a supportive environment for risk assets but there are plenty of concerning developments below the surface. Barclays research analysts say that investors should enjoy the quiet while it lasts, but with a wary eye on “tail” scenarios.
6. Citi Global Wealth: Mid-Year Outlook 2024 – Renewed growth, new challenges – "The global economy has entered a phase of growth and normalisation. While market conditions may be somewhat less than ideal, we see a variety of opportunities to seek returns and mitigate risks."
7. UBS: Investing in the second half of 2024 – "We expect the same themes to shape markets in the second half of the year. With this in mind, we recommend several core strategies for investors."
8. BNP Paribas: Global Outlook Q2 2024 – Tailwinds but not all plain sailing – Markets 360, the strategy and economics division of BNP Paribas Global Markets, examines the global outlook for Q2 2024.
   
9. Wells Fargo: Midyear Outlook – Top portfolio ideas for the second half of 2024 – "Slowing consumer spending and job growth should trigger a Federal Reserve policy switch to lower cost and greater availability of credit as the year progresses. In short, we look for an economic pivot from slowing to reaccelerating growth to calibrate the capital markets’ path forward. Here’s a look at our top five portfolio ideas for the months ahead."
10. T. Rowe Price: 2024 Global Market Outlook Midyear Update – How central bank policy could impact your portfolio – "We see continued market broadening, with select equity and fixed income opportunities. Most importantly, the ongoing transition from the low rate post-global financial crisis environment to one characterised by higher interest rates may provide favorable conditions for active managers to outperform."
11. Capital Group: Midyear Outlook 2024 – The new reality of investing – "Along with change comes uncertainty, and we are moving from a period of relatively low volatility to what could be much higher in the years ahead. Against this backdrop, we present our 2024 Midyear Outlook."
12. State Street Global Advisors: 2024 Midyear Global Market Outlook – "Risk assets have proved resilient in 2024, although the anticipated bond bounce has not yet materialised. Rate cut expectations have been trimmed amid persistent inflation but we maintain our soft landing forecast. However, risks for investors warrant attention."
13. Invesco: 2024 midyear outlook – Is it time to rethink, reset and refresh? – "Inflation and interest rates continue to dominate headlines and hover over the economic and investment landscapes. Geopolitics have also been significant and technological innovations continue to play an important role. While we can’t predict the future, we ask: Is it time to rethink, reset and refresh your view of the economic and investment landscapes?"
14. Airlie Funds Management: Bull and bear case for Australian shares in the New Financial Year – In Airlie’s view, the past five years have shown that buying and selling stocks based on a view of the market’s impending movements is a fool’s game. In this article, Airlie avoids predicting where the market is going to be in 12 months and instead focuses on three reasons for investors to be bullish on Australian equities in FY25 and three reasons to be bearish. 
    
15. Janus Henderson Investors: Market GPS Mid-Year Investment Outlook 2024 – "with central bank policy still uncertain, geopolitical headwinds continuing, and election outcomes yet to be decided, we find ourselves in a holding pattern. As we circle the runway and await a landing, we believe there are opportunities to judiciously increase risk in market segments primed to benefit from a mid- to late-cycle re-acceleration.
16. World Gold Council: Gold Mid-Year Outlook 2024 – "Gold has thus far benefitted from continued central bank buying, Asian investment flows, resilient consumer demand, and a steady drumbeat of geopolitical uncertainty. As we look forward, the key question in investors’ minds is whether gold’s momentum can continue or if it’s running out of steam."

Note: We'll update this list with links to more reports in the days ahead, as more mid-year outlook statements are released. Watch this space.