What's ahead for markets and investors in 2024?

As the end of another year barrels into sight, some of the greatest minds in the investment world have turned their minds (and their keyboards) to what 2024 might hold.

At Livewire Markets, being a conduit between expert commentators and retail investors is a key part of our editorial purpose. We do this in numerous ways, by providing an online portal for professional investors, where they can publish their own insights. Our team of content editors also collectively spend hundreds of hours each year interviewing the “talking heads” – including portfolio managers, wealth managers, and economists – about the topics that interest investors.

We’re also in the fortunate position of receiving numerous market updates from the professional investment community. We frequently delve into these to help further our own knowledge. That’s so we can ask the right questions and generate meaningful responses from the many investment professionals we cross paths with, and in turn report the most useful information. 

In the following, we’ve collated a raft of the 2024 outlook statements Livewire has received so far. Across those listed below, there’s a wide variety of views – especially given many are composed of contributions from cross-disciplinary teams operating in diverse global markets. But there are a handful of common threads that run throughout many of them, including:

A shift back toward “normal” investing

On a broad basis, the view from most of them is that 2024 is likely to be better than 2023 on the macroeconomic front. One of the few exceptions on this front was from Fidelity, which holds an against-consensus view that next year will bring a cyclical recession.

But across most, the overarching view is that the prospect of global recession is far lower than many people might think. There’s also a view that next year may mark a more “normal” investing landscape than we’ve seen since before the Global Financial Crisis

Artificial intelligence hasn’t yet scratched the surface

In terms of investment themes, AI was mentioned frequently in the 2024 outlook statements, with an overarching view we’ve only seen the tip of the iceberg of this theme. BlackRock believes this holds powerful implications for companies, particularly US-based small- and mid-capitalisation companies.

Bonds versus equities

The shifting role of bonds within portfolios was also a common theme, especially given the bond yield rally of 2023. But the broadly held view is that duration is the biggest consideration on fixed income investor radars in 2024.

International markets

Emerging markets received some attention within the outlook statements too, including of course China. The most common view is that the outlook for China in 2024 is challenging but less so than many people expect. India also rates a mention in several of the outlook statements.

Within the developed world, European markets more broadly, and the UK specifically, were tipped for a particularly difficult 2024.

In summary, some of the more hopeful lines come from the Barclays outlook: “It is important not to underestimate the private sector’s ability to adjust and navigate uncertain times. On that front, there appear to be rays of hope.”

“Unlike 12 months ago, many investors and forecasters are somewhat downbeat about what lies ahead. While this in itself is not enough to prevent a slowdown, it leaves plenty of room for positive surprises.”

Outlook statements list

1. Goldman Sachs – Macro Outlook 2024: The Hard Part Is Over 
2. Neuberger Berman – Solving for 2024: 10 key themes to navigate the markets 
3. BlackRock – 2024 Thematic Outlook: Three themes to get investors off the sidelines 
4. UBS – The outlook for equities in 2024 
5. J.P.Morgan Wealth Management – 2024 elections 
6. Morgan Stanley – The 2024 Outlook
7. Fidelity International – The economy in 2024: Something will give
   
8. Without a crystal ball, what are the possible scenarios for 2024? – Fidelity's Tom Stevenson provides his own take on the team's outlook
   
9. BNP Paribas Asset Management – Investment Outlook: Stepping into a new reality 
10. Lazard – Global Outlook 2024
11. Barclays Private Bank – Outlook 2024 
12. Vanguard – Our investment and economic outlook, November 2023 
13. S&P Global – The Big Picture: 2024 M&A Industry Outlook 
14. PIMCO – Prime Time for Bonds
15. TD Securities – 2024 Global Outlook: Ready, Set, Slow
16. Mercer – Investment themes and opportunities 2024
    
17. Janus Henderson – Finding the sweet spot for global equities in 2024
18. Janus Henderson – Unveiling the road ahead in 2024
19. Tyndall Asset Management – Long live fundamentals and stock picking: The sectors set to outperform in 2024
20. Capital Group. – Economic outlook: A mixed picture for global growth in 2024
    
21. Amundi Asset Management – 2024 Outlook: Steering through turning tides
22. Wilsons Advisory – Our key themes and positions for 2024
23. Bell Potter – Bell Potter's top stock picks for 2024

Note: We'll update this list with links to more reports in the weeks and months ahead, as more 2024 outlook statements are released. Watch this space.