What you need to know about the market regime shift and how to invest

Our flash macro update explores the impact of Trump's tariffs, the silver linings in the market and how to invest.
Henry McVey

KKR Australia

The ‘Liberation Day’ tariff plan President Trump rolled out on April 2nd was far more aggressive than we and markets expected. Inflation will rise and growth will be dented more than we originally anticipated, with a mild U.S. recession risk now on the table in coming quarters. See below for details, but for 2025, we lower U.S. GDP to 0.5% growth from 2.1% while Europe falls to 0.6% from 1.0%. Meanwhile, in China, we forecast 4.3% from 4.4% previously.

A key area on which to focus now includes shifting stimulus drivers around the world. For example, the U.S. is in a unique position in that it has both a fiscal headwind from DOGE (around 60 basis points in 2025) and the negative impact from tariffs (approximately 250 basis points in 2025). By comparison, both Europe, Germany in particular, and China are accelerating fiscal tailwinds, helping offset drags from tariffs (Exhibit 5 in PDF linked). So, the asynchronous global recovery is shifting from the Americas to Europe and Asia, an important change, we believe.

Looking at the bigger picture, Liberation Day accelerates our Regime Change thesis, which has been driven by heightened geopolitics, bigger fiscal deficits (now growing more in Germany and China), a messy energy transition, and stickier inflation. This is a new era where, as General David Petraeus has been saying, we have shifted from benign globalization to one of great power competition.

For markets, diversification, non-correlation, operational levers, and upfront yield will matter more. Credit is likely to bend not fully break, we believe, while Public Equities will likely be de-rated until there is more visibility on policy and growth. We see a weaker dollar, but do not see wildly higher bond yields. Our key themes, including Intra-Asia Trade, Security of Everything, Productivity, and Collateral-Based Cash flows, will all gain momentum in this new world order.  

Learn more about how we are thinking about the Trump administration's approach to tariffs in our full Flash Macro Update where we cover the following:

  1. What happened?
  2. Changes for GDP, inflation and rates
  3. Silver linings amidst the macro headwinds
  4. What does this mean for markets?
  5. What does this mean for investing?
  6. Further details, by region
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Important Information The views expressed in this presentation are the personal views of Henry McVey of Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. L.P. (together with its affiliates, “KKR”) and do not necessarily reflect the views of KKR itself or any investment professional at KKR. This presentation is not research and should not be treated as research. This presentation does not represent valuation judgments with respect to any financial instrument, issuer, security or sector that may be described or referenced herein and does not represent a formal or official view of KKR. This presentation is not intended to, and does not, relate specifically to any investment strategy or product that KKR offers. It is being provided merely to provide a framework to assist in the implementation of an investor’s own analysis and an investor’s own views on the topic discussed herein. The views expressed reflect the current views of Mr. McVey as of the date hereof and neither Mr. McVey nor KKR undertakes to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein. References to “we”, “us,” and “our” refer to Mr. McVey and/or KKR’s Global Macro and Asset Allocation team, as context requires, and not of KKR. Opinions or statements regarding financial market trends are based on current market conditions and are subject to change without notice. References to a target portfolio and allocations of such a portfolio refer to a hypothetical allocation of assets and not an actual portfolio. The views expressed herein and discussion of any target portfolio or allocations may not be reflected in the strategies and products that KKR offers or invests, including strategies and products to which Mr. McVey provides investment advice to or on behalf of KKR. It should not be assumed that Mr. McVey has made or will make investment recommendations in the future that are consistent with the views expressed herein, or use any or all of the techniques or methods of analysis described herein in managing client or proprietary accounts. Further, Mr. McVey may make investment recommendations and KKR and its affiliates may have positions (long or short) or engage in securities transactions that are not consistent with the information and views expressed in this document. This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes. The information contained herein is only as current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Charts and graphs provided herein are for illustrative purposes only. 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This presentation should not be viewed as a current or past recommendation or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The information in this presentation may contain projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets, forecasts or expectations regarding the strategies described herein, and is only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or targets will be achieved, and may be significantly different from that shown here. The information in this presentation, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons. Performance of all cited indices is calculated on a total return basis with dividends reinvested. The indices do not include any expenses, fees or charges and are unmanaged and should not be considered investments. 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Henry McVey
Head of Global Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk, CIO of KKR Balance Sheet
KKR Australia

Henry H. McVey is CIO of the KKR Balance Sheet and is Head of the Global Macro, Balance Sheet and Risk team. He oversees Firm wide Market Risk at KKR, and co-heads KKR’s Strategic Partnership Initiative. As part of these roles, he sits on the...

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