Your predictions for next year

I like the concept of a “New” year. For a stock market trader it’s as good a time as any to take a moment to look back and torment yourself with all those things you didn’t know but could have guessed that would have made investment so easy over the last twelve months, simple things that would have taken all the stress out of it, saved an enormous amount of time and helped us to prematurely and gloriously retire.

Every year there are a handful of these things that you needed to know that would have swept away all the bollocks, all the financial theory, all the research, all the complications and all the endless blah blah blah we were bombarded with. Things that made us money, a few words that we shoulda coulda but didn’t distill from the many thousands of unnecessary words that we read in their pursuit.

You don’t have to wait for the New Year to do it, you can do it any day of the year, look back over the last twelve months and identify certain X factors that you needed to know. I like to call them Post-it notes, one line instructions that you wish someone had stuck on your trading screen at the beginning of the year that would have simplified everything.

Twelve months ago for instance the most valuable post-it notes might have said

• Take the year off, the stock market is going nowhere.
• Banks and Resources will move less than 1% in twelve months.
• The Lithium boom will bust.
• The market will lose its head over AI stocks.
• Buy data centres (NXT).
• Having dropped 30% in 2022 the NASDAQ will bounce 37% in 2023.
• Nuclear power will be declared Green in Europe. Buy uranium stocks.
• Persistent inflation will catch Central Banks by surprise.
• Interest rates will not peak until November.
• COVID will not return. Nor will Dan.
• You will make 87% and 70% in two big boring stocks, James Hardie and Boral.
• The moment bond yields peak, buy REITs. The biggest REIT GMG will go up 33%.
• Buy Bitcoin in anticipation of SEC ETF approvals.
• Don’t bother catching the knife on ResMed and CSL.
• Marcus Today Member pick Neuren Pharmaceuticals will double.

So what of the Post-it notes for 2024? Here are a few possibles:

• Trump returns to White House with Tax cut promises. Stock market booms.
• Bitcoin hits new all time high as SEC’s ETF frenzy spurs self-fulfilling demand for limited commodity.
• Ark Investments Cathie Wood lauded for “Million dollar Bitcoin” prediction.
• Rise of the HV (Hydrogen Vehicle) sees Lithium “fad” investors ruined.
• Second-hand vehicle prices plummet as new model innovation emulates 1980’s PC boom.
• Macquarie abandons EV infrastructure project as numbers ‘don’t add up’ in Australia.
• Australia’s biggest carbon emitter AGL best performer in ASX 200 as renewable energy ramp up hits ESG hurdles.
• AI stocks plummet as Language Learning models cannibalise traditional earnings streams.
• Nvidia worst performer in NASDAQ as Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet develop own chips.
• Data Centres boom again as EV Uber fleet requires more processing power than globally available.
• US turns up oil production as renewable energy blackouts proliferate.
• Oil price returns to long-term average of $20.
• Inflation drops below all Central Bank targets as oil price plummets.
• Bond yields return to zero.
• Housing market demand explodes as mortgage rates plummet.
• REITs best performing sector in 2024.
  
• Major Australian banks surprise market with unexpected earnings growth as credit demand jumps as bond yields slip.
• Company earnings crater as four day week delivers lower productivity on top of implied 20% salary rise.
• Australian dollar returns to 110c as China fires infrastructure Bazooka.
• World destroyed instantly as ChatGPT achieves scentience.

Or, more likely.

• Australian house prices remain static as RBA leaves rates on hold all year.
• US inflation slowly creeps towards Fed target.
• Republicans win US election as Trump watches from Alcatraz.
• Ukraine War slips into second year without progress.
• Lithium prices recover slowly as project closures tighten supply.
• Big Tech retreats as AI earnings growth matures.
• Chinese delay infrastructure spending as property crisis lingers.
• Oil prices settle as OPEC+ production cuts persist.
• Four Day Week Bill rejected by Senate for the fourth time.
• Bitcoin plummets as SEC blocks ETF licences. Cathie Wood retires.

I remember seeing an old broker on Sky Business I hadn’t seen before. Not young. With the clarity of a newbie, he commented that his wife and he were just wishing for one more boom before they retired. That would be nice. Next year maybe.

YOUR PREDICTIONS...so far

• CSL Hits $400 and is the ASX's largest MC Stock!!!!
• Fed cuts 50-75 bps, core CPI drops to high 2s, but US10Y rise to 5.5%+ - REITs get crucified again because of this (IMO sell the rallies on REITs) - AI bubble burst, ChatGPT is still far from human intelligence, it cannot reason logically - AUD 50 cents
• $AUD to rise as US Interest Rates drop closer to Australian Rates.
• Exxon buys Albemarle cheaply in first quarter. China bans graphite and rare earths exports outright.
• Prediction for 24 INR to get the final go-ahead from the US conservation dept, share price to rocket
• Keep an eye on Woomera Miming LTD - "The 12 Million Dollar Man"
• Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) will be proven to work at scale in Santos' Moomba project around mid 2024, and will start to be accepted as necessary if the world is to achieve net zero by 2050. This achievement will initiate a revaluation of oil and gas majors as the market gains visibility on a very significant and growing new revenue stream from CCS.
• Do nothing until September. Then plan, prepare and execute a large RIO holding when the technicals are supportive, usually around end of October to 5 November. Hold for a short while, sell, smile and enjoy. Rinse and repeat each year thereafter... Boring but works !
• Santos (STO) will no longer be listed on ASX by end of 2024, having been divided up between several buyers for a cumulative value not much more than that implied by its current share price (if the remaining shareholders are fortunate!).
• Middle East war gets ugly, turning oil prices to 200 a barrel.
• Spending on automated vehicles plummets as pedestrians realise they can just step out on to the road whenever they want, knowing that the car approaching will stop for them.
• Neuren doubles again in 2024.
• Retirees continue to make a nice income from dividends and franking credits.
• AI plummets as everyone realizes that AI has no real "Intelligence". It's just a very large language pattern-matching tool that doesn't "understand" anything it tells you.
• I bet all the dinosaurs are praying for "Bitcoin plummets as SEC blocks ETF licenses. Cathie Wood retires."
• 4DX will gain traction in the USA and on its way to be a mini PME
• Most predictions I agree with except: Trump won't be watching from Alcatraz as Alcatraz closed in 1963 :) ; But Trump could well the the winner!! Yeah !! 4 day week rejected - totally agree, my predictions are that it will be much the same as 2023. Bitcoin, no future there. Keep watching out for AI. I am attending a number of seminars, looks very promising but a long way to go yet. Have a safe and prosperous 2024 folks :)
• Geez Marcus you had me going there for a while. Nearly dropped my coffee.
• I reckon 2024 will be boring. Some stocks will go up, some will go down but overall, we will roughly be where we are now. The international landscape is mostly unchanged. I will still be trying to lose weight.
• 2024- Sell and go away before May will be the way
• My only concern with this is that it is the consensus view - might be that the economy struggles in the first half but the stock market moves ahead of that.
• Nuclear Power Stations to supply the power to produce Hydrogen.
• Labor reverses its anti-uranium policy as the Coalition promise to export it if they win the election and polls show overwhelming support for the Coalition policy.
• Gold will hit new highs, gold producers even higher
• Gina and Twiggy combine to buy Victoria, which has fallen into receivership.
• SHL will be the most consistent stock in the ASX 200 in 2024, rising 30% ish. Chemistware house float will see the price double in the first two weeks, then steadily decline as earnings and profit guidance don’t live up to expectations. Price slips below float. I do like trump watching from Alcatraz also.
• Gold $2500+ by End of CY24
• A general economic recession commences in the Western world economies.
• Something completely unexpected will happen, or somebody with an outlandish prediction will somehow be correct. Shortly after a movie will go into product with a release date of early to mid 2025. 10 year prediction for if it is that second one, people will still be posting articles about that person who predicted the outlandish even though they haven't been correct again since then.
• Neuron doubles on Phase 2 testing results.
• CSL hits $330 then retreats slowly to $270, being the last chance to grab under $300 as slowly takes off again to set new highs in the 2024 Christmas rally BHP hits $52 then retreats to $40 before slowly rising in the 2024 Christmas rally to new highs when it Canadian operations are near starting operations and announces a lithium takeover.
• In the thrilling year of 2024, a futuristic Cyborg has been dispatched from the depths of time itself on a mission of paramount importance. Its target? None other than the seasoned prognosticator Marcus Padley. This extraordinary intervention is the final gambit, a desperate measure aimed at empowering Marcus to craft predictions that transcend the ordinary, guiding us hapless investors toward the elusive path of financial prosperity. Brace yourselves as the future unfolds, and Marcus, armed with the wisdom of the ages, endeavours to steer us toward riches in this high-stakes game of investment. "Hey Marcus can I have a free subscription to your newsletter - cheers Tony"
• One prediction of the many made will be mostly correct.
• Governments will finally realise they can resolve the peaks and troughs from renewable energy by incentivising homeowners to install batteries on their solar systems. Like magic lots of grid issues will be resolved.
• The uranium spot price reaches $100 USD, and uranium mining stocks go absolutely bonkers.

Please feel free to drop your 2024 predictions in the comments below. However absurd, sensible, mind-expanding or humourous.

I will add them to the article as they progress.