us interest rates

Latest news and analysis on us interest rates

Macro

Risks around Fed policy in a soft landing

The Fed hopes it can achieve a soft landing, lowering the policy rate to around 3%, broadly matching its estimate of the neutral rate.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Meeting the Sahm rule recession threshold supports a September Fed rate cut

The US unemployment rate has edged above most estimates of the NAIRU for the first time since 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut next month.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Fed policy, the Sahm rule and the risk of recession

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US inflation could take longer to reach the Fed's 2% target

Any delay in achieving the 2% inflation target points to interest rates staying high for longer
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The improvement in US wages growth stalls

Wages growth has slowed a lot from its COVID peak, but the improvement looks to have broadly stalled recently.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The Fed is challenged by higher inflation in Q1

Underlying inflation has picked up sharply in Q1 on a range of measures.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Higher US inflation, derails Fed rate cut plans and poses a threat to risky assets

Higher core inflation will disappoint the Fed and shake optimism about risk assets.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Fed signals US rate cuts & slightly higher rates for longer

The FOMC expects to cut rates at a faster pace than implied by a policy rule relying on its own economic forecasts.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Five takeaways from US soft landings

Whether we will see a soft landing has been the big question facing financial markets.
Janu Chan
Bitesized Economics
Views from the Top

Why volatility is good news for this type of investment strategy

And the reason interest rate hikes don't work quite the way they used to.
Sara Allen
Livewire Markets
Macro

Strong US wages growth continues

Wages growth has slowed, but was the fastest in trend terms since 2000.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Property

Rising interest rates mean a slower construction sector

As interest rates rise, investment activity falls, reducing activity across the construction sector, impacting residential property supply.
Chris Bedingfield
Quay Global Investors
Macro

Latest PCE inflation data doesn't support another US rate hike

With the latest PCE inflation data showing deepening disinflation amidst falling lending growth & M2, data doesn't support another rate hike
Steven Anastasiou
Economics Uncovered
Macro

The familiar story of sticky US inflation

US core inflation remains persistently high.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Worried about the mortgage cliff? This is what the Fed and RBA need to see before cutting rates

Rate cuts will come eventually, but central banks need to break some things first.
David Thornton
Livewire Markets
Macro

Lessons from past US recessions

In the context of the bond market signalling a US recession in late 2023/early 2024 - where CCI has been forecasting a recession since earlier this year - we have...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Inflation from a small cap perspective

I’ve spent the last few days talking to most of the folks I know in the market, collecting opinions, information and discussing what other investors are thinking on...
Gary Rollo
Montgomery
Macro

My recent Q&A on the year that was, and the year ahead

This market insight is a selection of questions from our investors that I answer to provide further insight into the year that was, and our outlook for the upcoming...
Hue Frame
Frame Funds Management
Macro

Three things that should worry everyone

There are three prices that ultimately matter for the world, explains Andrew Canobi from Franklin Templeton. The price of oil, the value of the US Dollar, and the US...
Andrew Canobi
Franklin Templeton
Macro

High risk of US equity market correction

US equities are extremely expensive according to long-term valuation measures such as the cyclically-adjusted PE (CAPE) ratio. The CAPE ratio for the S&P500 is...
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
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