September hike unlikely despite Fed Jawboning

Since the surprise FOMC rate hike in 1994, the FOMC has never raised rates, or cut them, without the ‘pre-approval’ of the Fed Funds Futures (FFF) market. If history holds, the FFF would need to price more than 60% probability before the FOMC would act. Yellen and Stanley Fisher are jaw-boning, to try to lift those probabilities in the near term and give the FOMC the greatest flexibility. On Friday's close, the September probability had risen 10% to 42%. We expect further hawkish talk from FOMC officials ahead of the September meeting. At this point September looks unlikely, and we favour a possible move in December after the US elections.