Trending On Livewire: Weekend Edition - Saturday 19th April
Markets got a circuit breaker of their own this week – just in time for Easter (and maybe some chocolate).
As well oiled as markets can be, things don’t always go to plan. That’s why we have circuit breakers. For example, stock exchanges set limits on how far a market or security call fall in a single session. “Limit down” describes a predefined price drop that temporarily halts trading to prevent panic selling.
Then there’s the fabled Plunge Protection Team, a nickname given to the Working Group on Financial Markets established in 1988 by President Reagan in response to 1987’s Black Monday. Conspiracy theorists would have you believe that the team actively intervenes in markets during times of steep declines to "prop up" prices and prevent crashes. The group's official mandate is far less fun - to maintain the integrity and stability of US financial markets.
With the Easter break upon us and global markets shut down for a period, perhaps the break will act as an enforced circuit breaker for the recent volatility. Hopefully Trump can get his fill of easter eggs and come back happy and ready to cut meaningful deals – although I don’t like the chances because most cocoa comes from the Ivory Coast and Ghana. And let’s face it, US chocolate is powdery rubbish.
Have a happy and safe break.
Chris Conway, Managing Editor, Livewire Markets
“We’re buying”: Emma Fisher spots a rare chance to upgrade the portfolio
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As chocolate prices soar and Easter indulgence stretches both wallets and waistlines, it’s worth asking: could your money be better spent elsewhere? Take the 1kg Lindt Gold Bunny—delicious, yes, but it’s gone in days, leaving behind 540g of sugar and an empty bank balance. Contrast that with an investment in Commonwealth Bank shares. Even if overvalued, they offer dividends, potential capital growth, and—unlike chocolate—can be resold. This Easter, we suggest a smarter treat: shares now, discounted chocolate later. To help, we reconvened the Aussie Equities Easter Bunny Advisory Committee to identify the true portfolio sweet spots—chocolate or carob, indulgent or enduring.
Anatomy of a crisis - and some tips from a seasoned contrarian on what to do next
Investors hoping for a swift V-shaped recovery are likely to be disappointed. Koda Capital’s Brigette Leckie warns the path forward will be slow and grinding, as Trump’s tariff-led policies create a structural break for markets. Unlike past crises - the GFC, pandemic, and dot-com crash - today’s world is more fragmented and inflationary, making stimulus less effective. Leckie sees stronger parallels with the 1970s: higher tariffs, costlier goods, and a protracted bear market. However, she notes Australia could be a relative winner, with strong commodity demand, potential fiscal support, and more policy flexibility than many other economies.
Top 3 Wires this Week
Here are the weeks top viewed or liked wires by our subscribers:
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Some of the best wires from our Contributors this week
Macro
Seven reasons Australia is likely to avoid recession from Trump’s shock
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Equities
The bigger (the multiple), the harder they fall
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Commodities
Gold at US$3,500? The bull case no-one should ignore
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Chart of the Week: Gold glitters while everything else jitters
Our chart of the week shows the yellow metal outpacing every major asset class. Its surge has been fuelled by central bank buying, mounting concerns over U.S. deficits, and a growing view among investors that gold is now safer than Treasuries. BlackRock sees more upside in 2025, with VanEck’s Arian Neiron eyeing US$3,500. While large-cap gold miners appear fully priced, Janus Henderson’s Daniel Sullivan and Seneca’s Ben Richards believe there’s untapped potential in the riskier end of the market. Watch James Marlay’s full interview with them for insights on where the next golden opportunity might lie.
Vishal Teckchandani, Senior Editor, Livewire Markets
Weekly Poll
Have you changed your allocation to gold in the past 12 months?
a) Increased — it’s a store of value I trust
b) Decreased — I’m rotating into other assets
c) No change — I’m holding steady
d) I don’t invest in gold
e) Thinking about it now...
LAST WEEKS POLL RESULTS
We asked "Which ASX sector do you think is most vulnerable to Trump’s latest policy shifts"
The poll shows 40% of respondents saw the resources sector as most at risk, while 21% dismissed the noise entirely. Technology (19%), consumer discretionary (14%), and financials (6%) rounded out the list of vulnerable sectors.
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