Where are they now? The 10 biggest gainers in the ASX 200 last year

There’s a saying which has been popularised in movies like Mad Max: “One day you’re cock of the walk, the next, you’re a feather duster”. It’s the equivalent of ‘past performance is no reliable indicator of future performance’ which is imprinted in my brain from years working in a bank, let alone with fund managers today.

If there was a year to worry about the so-called ‘cock of the walks’, 2023 would probably stand high with AI fuelling the extraordinary success of the Magnificent Seven. Despite that, many contributors to Livewire have suggested there is more to come – at least for the time being.

But while that might cover off the biggest hitters globally, what about closer to home? 

It’s only a few months ago, but do you remember who the biggest gainers on the ASX200 were in 2023?

My colleague Kerry Sun has crunched the numbers for me and pulled the 10 biggest gainers as at 29 December 2023.

Are they still going strong or are they trending on the feather duster side? I’ll take a closer look in this wire.

The 10 biggest gainers of the ASX200 as at end 2023

Source: Market Index. Close price 2023 and 2023 return are as at 29 December 2023. Current price and 2024 YTD as at 23 April 2024.

It's worth noting that only two of the top 10 have fallen in 2024 - Neuren Pharmaceuticals and James Hardie. But... that doesn't spell feather duster territory yet. Read on and you'll see why.

1. Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX: NEU)

The biotech company had a stellar year in 2023, returning 214.10%. It’s worth taking a look back at what was happening in 2023. Not only did Neuren receive FDA approval for its Daybue drug (a world-first drug treatment for Rett syndrome), it also successfully licensed the drug to Acadia Pharmaceuticals, generating $ 231.9 million in revenue.

Adding to a highly successful year was the release of successful results in its Phase 2 clinical trial for a drug treating children with Phelan-McDermid syndrome.

So what has changed this year?

Short-seller Culper Research released a report alleging that Daybue’s launch was a flop and there were concerns over its safety. Share prices plummeted on the claims. Neuren dismissed the claims and the sales for Daybue exceeded expectations in Q4 2023.

KP Rx’s Hashan De Silva believes Neuren is undervalued based on the potential of Daybue alone, before factoring in the trials it is currently undertaking.

In an edition of Buy Hold Sell in December, it was ranked as a SELL by T.Rowe Price's Randal Jenneke and a BUY from Tribeca’s Jun Bei Liu.

It also featured in Livewire readers’ top-tipped stocks for 2024.

2. Emerald Resources (ASX: EMR) 

YTD 2024: 9.80%

It probably shouldn’t come as a surprise that the gold miner had a good year in 2023 courtesy of rising gold prices, and continues to perform well (though perhaps not to last year’s phenomenal returns).

In the last week, Emerald Resources announced robust findings at its North Laverton Gold Project and the Cambodian-based Okvau Gold Mine. It also commenced drilling at the Mermot Gold Project.

Gold prices hit record highs earlier in the month with Emerald Resources starting to attract attention from short sellers. Gold prices have since declined off the back of some easing of tensions in the Middle East, the chance of higher for longer interest rates and overbought conditions.

3. Audinate Group (ASX: AD8) 

YTD 2024: 14.28%

A leader in the audio-visual networking industry saw its revenue grow 51.1% in the first half of the 2024 fiscal year, while EBITDA rocketed 136.5% to $10.1 million. You can read a wrap-up in this wire. Let’s just say 2024 is looking just as promising as 2023 for Audinate.

Montgomery Investment estimates that Audinate’s total addressable market is around US$2 billion, while its current market share is around 9%.

Based on the Market Index Broker Consensus Tool, analysts think there is further upside for the company with a majority of brokers rating it a BUY.

Livewire’s Hans Lee recently interviewed Audinate’s CEO and co-founder Aidan Williams on the future of the business. You can watch the interview here.

4. James Hardie Industries (ASX: JHX)

YTD 2024: -3.93%

A slowdown in housing construction barely hit the manufacturer of fibre cement siding and backer board with the company able to leverage its brand and reputation to increase prices.

While slightly down on the year, prices have largely held up and brokers on the whole think James Hardie can continue to generate strong earnings. Profits were up 45% in the earnings results it reported for the third quarter ending 31 December 2023. It is ranked as a STRONG BUY in Market Index’s broker consensus tool.

In the last week, BlackRock initially sold down and then increased its holdings in James Hardie.

5. Boss Energy (ASX: BOE) 

YTD 2024: 14.39%

Off the back of rising interest in nuclear energy in late 2023, uranium miners globally saw an uplift. As one of the two ASX-listed uranium miners, it was unsurprising that Boss Energy would see the benefits.

That steady run has continued. The miner reopened the Honeymoon Uranium Mine in South Australia and announced it had produced its first drum this week. It is also expected to start up the Alta Mesa uranium project in South Texas in the next few weeks. Prices have been rising off the back of the milestone production news.

ASR Wealth Advisers' Tim Montague-Jones tipped Boss Energy as his uranium pick given its assets are in Australia and the US – stable jurisdictions to operate in. It’s also a holding in the Eiger Australian Small Companies Fund, with Principal and Portfolio Manager David Haddad discussing the outlook for uranium in this wire.

6. Boral (ASX: BLD) 

YTD 2024: 6.49%

Boral’s board has just backed a takeover bid from Seven Group Holdings (ASX: SVW) which will see Boral shareholders receive 0.1116 Seven Group shares and $1.70 cash per share, along with a 30c/share fully-franked special dividend once the offer is completed. Unsurprisingly, it’s ranked as HOLD on Market Index’s Broker Consensus tool.

Not exactly a feather-duster, but obviously once it’s absorbed by Seven Group, you won’t see the name Boral in this list again.

7. Ramelius Resources (ASX: RMS)

2024 YTD: 16.62%

Another gold miner in the list, Ramelius Resources owns and operates the Mt Magnet, Edna May, Vivien, Marda, Tampia and Penny gold mines, along with the Rebecca Gold Project, all based in Western Australia. It currently ranks as a BUY in Market Index’s Broker Consensus Tool.

The miner just reported a record quarterly gold production of 85,928 ounces for the March quarter and is expecting an annual company production record for the 2024 financial year.

Ord Minnet’s David Lane recently nominated Ramelius Resources as one of the stocks he’d include in a $100k growth portfolio.

8. Seven Group (ASX: SVW) 

2024 YTD: 4.85%

The conglomerate spans industrial services, media and energy. As mentioned earlier, the board of Boral has recommended investors accept Seven Group’s takeover bid. There has also been speculation that Seven Group is considering acquiring Cleanaway Waste Management (ASX: CWY), though a spokesperson said any speculation was untrue.

The business currently ranks as a HOLD in Market Index’s Broker Consensus Tool.

Elvest’s Adrian Ezquerro last year identified it as a growth pick for the next 10 years in an episode of Buy Hold Sell, noting the strength of units like WesTrac, Boral and Coates.

9. Pro Medicus (ASX: PME) 

YTD 2024: 10.37%

The healthcare imaging and diagnostics supplier has continued to rally in 2024, having offered strong performance in 2023. It has become beloved by tech and healthcare investors alike. I can think it's probably safe to say this stock is still a 'cock of the walk'.

Tribeca’s Jun Bei Liu notes Pro Medicus is the highest conviction growth holding in her portfolio.

“With its established market share and cutting-edge technology, Pro Medicus is poised to emerge as a key player in the integration of AI tools to support diagnosis,” she says.

Hear directly about the future direction of Pro Medicus from CEO Dr Sam Hupert in this recent interview with Livewire’s Chris Conway.

Pro Medicus currently ranks as a HOLD in the Market Index Broker Consensus Tool.

10. Smartgroup Corporation (ASX: SIQ) 

YTD 2024: 13.99%

For those who haven’t come across this one before, Smartgroup offers salary packaging, fleet management and other organisational services across Australia.

Lazard’s Dr Philipp Hofflin believes recent rule changes around using novated leases and salary packaging as a tax arbitrage benefit could be a major catalyst for Smartgroup.

“That’s going to dramatically increase the addressable market for that sector,” he said. 

It's an interesting one to watch either way.

The final verdict?

While it's unlikely last year's top 10 gainers will be this year's too, it seems unfair to tar any of the above companies with the feather duster brush. But do you agree?

Let me know your thoughts in the comments below and your predictions - after all, anything can and will change in markets in an instant.