inflation

Latest news and analysis on inflation

Macro

Prices, jobs, and personalities: Here comes the US election

The US election is nearly here. The opinion polls are close. What is not clear is what are the hopes and fears of ordinary Americans.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Macro

The room to cut interest rates across countries

The RBA never raised rates by as much as other countries, so it has relatively less scope to cut them in a soft economic landing.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Why lower interest rates rule

The path to lower interest rates is clear - at least in market pricing terms.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Macro

US inflation: only held up by housing

US inflation came in low. Services are still running hot, but that is mostly driven by housing costs. It would seem that the housing costs in CPI are probably...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Soft landings nearly always prove elusive for the Fed

Soft landings are exceedingly rare in the US and the 1990s episode marks the only example of a successful soft landing.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The Fed and the RBA part company on policy

Improving inflation is consistent with the Fed cutting rates next month, while a hawkish-sounding RBA plans to keep rates on hold.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Education

How experts’ “systematic mispredictions” improve our returns

Their forecasts lure most investors into overconfidence – and thus losses. If you recognise experts’ biases, you can grasp opportunities.
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Macro

Ways to hedge inflation

Long-term savings need to grow more than inflation to meet future liabilities or lifestyle choices.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Equities

This market is running out of breadth

Fewer and fewer stocks are participating in this rally. Investors need to be cautious here
Greg Canavan
Fat Tail Investment Research
Macro

Different ways to 2%

Central banks will likely maintain a 2% inflation target in the coming years.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Macro

Some relief from US core inflation matching expectations in April

The Fed is sidelined on rates for some time as it watches how inflation evolves after an unexpected surge in Q1.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Solid EA core inflation unlikely to stop a ECB rate cut next week

Solid core inflation may not stop next week's ECB rate cut, but raises questions about the pace of further cuts.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

May 2024 Podcasts

Below is a summary of the topics we covered on Nucleus Investment Insights this month. See the links for more information.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

US & EA wages growth shows a sharp improvement, with AUS & NZ lagging

Advertised wages growth is at/near pre-COVID levels in the US & EA, while still-high growth in AUS & NZ should improve this year.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Riding the wave: Global markets eye growth as inflation eases, bonds offer resilience

Inflation is coming down, but the phrase “the final mile of disinflation is hard” is a well uttered one.
Chris Iggo
AXA Investment Managers
Macro

Rents pose a risk to US inflation

Measures of new rents are giving conflicting signals on the outlook for housing costs, which are a key driver of inflation.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Higher core inflation should challenge ECB signalling of a June rate cut

Euro area core inflation has picked up recently in trend terms on stronger services inflation.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Progress in reducing NZ underlying inflation stalled in Q1, likely frustrating the RBNZ

NZ inflation showed a continued striking contrast between weak goods prices and persistent services inflation.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US inflation data torpedoes June cut hopes. What’s the path of US interest rates now?

Yesterday's US CPI data was worse than expected, so what's the timing of the US interest rate cuts now? (Hint: far fewer and much later!)
Carl Capolingua
Livewire Markets
Investment Theme

Will the copper rally hold?

Dr Copper is the one Chief Economist I actually pay attention to when assessing the global economy. Could $4/lb now be too cheap for China?
BHP
+1
Kingsley Jones
Jevons Global
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