us economy

Latest news and analysis on us economy

Macro

The US economy could contract in Q1 as spending broadly stalls

US GDP could contract in Q1 as consumer spending broadly stalls on higher actual/expected inflation and fears of higher unemployment
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The Fed looks overly optimistic on the US outlook

IMF analysis suggests that the Fed is too optimistic on the likely impact of initial Trump tariffs.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US consumers send stagflationary signals about the outlook

The Michigan survey showed consumer unemployment expectations at recession-like levels with a tariff-driven spike in inflation expectations.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

US stocks tumble from an expensive starting point

The correction under way in US equities has started from a point of extremely expensive valuations relative to earnings and bond yields.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
The Rules of Investing

Steve Johnson: Two small caps on a run and the uncovered gems that could be next

Steve Johnson has refined his process for identifying small cap opportunities over 14 years. Here’s what’s catching his eye right now.
CCL
+3
The Rules of Investing
Livewire Markets
Macro

February 2025 Podcasts

Below is a summary of the topics we covered on Nucleus Investment Insights this month. See the links for more information.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Trump: Crash or crash through?

Trump has begun an unprecedented attack on the norms of US lawmaking. The scale and scope of the attack are significant and mostly unconstitutional. The two most...
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Wishful thinking: the Trump administration's "3-3-3" economic plan

US public debt is likely to reach a record share of GDP as tariff revenue and economic growth are unlikely to pay for Trump policies.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Trump starts a global trade war

Barring last-minute changes, the US is imposing punitive tariffs on its close ally Canada, Mexico, and China, with a EU tariff to come.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The consensus is wrong: America’s economy is chronically ill

Its GDP is growing – but relies upon mammoth, debt-fuelled deficits. Without this “stimulus” the U.S. would’ve been in recession since 2009.
Chris Leithner
Leithner & Company Ltd
Macro

US inflation firms over recent months

The Fed should forecast fewer rate cuts given firmer inflation, resilient economic growth, and the inflationary impact of Trump policies.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Productivity vs population in driving the US and Australian economies

US economic outperformance reflects superior labour productivity, while Australia continues to be powered by strong population growth.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

November 2024 Podcasts

Below is a summary of the topics we covered on Nucleus Investment Insights this month. See the links for more information.
Damien Klassen
Nucleus Wealth
Macro

Australians continue to run down their COVID-era savings

Households continue to follow the US experience, drawing on the excess savings built up during the pandemic.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Risks around Fed policy in a soft landing

The Fed hopes it can achieve a soft landing, lowering the policy rate to around 3%, broadly matching its estimate of the neutral rate.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Soft landings nearly always prove elusive for the Fed

Soft landings are exceedingly rare in the US and the 1990s episode marks the only example of a successful soft landing.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

Fed policy, the Sahm rule and the risk of recession

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Equities

A deeper look at diversification

It was the late great (at least in economic circles) Noble Prize-winning economist Harry Markowitz who said the only free lunch in investing is diversification. ...
Chad Padowitz
Talaria Asset Management
Macro

Judging post-COVID economic recoveries

The US economy stands out, with key measures of activity back in line with their pre-COVID trends, although Australia is not far behind.
Kieran Davies
Coolabah Capital
Macro

The scenario the Fed and RBA fear the most is upon us: Stagflation!

Inflation is heating up as economic growth is slowing. Should central banks hike rates to fight inflation or cut them to help the economy?
Carl Capolingua
Livewire Markets
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