Yield curve

The fixed income market has been through a tumultuous period and whilst investors have felt the pain, there are effective strategies

Their money supply’s shrinking and yield curves have inverted. This confluence of events always precedes slumps; can this time be different?

In the second installment on demystifying fixed income concepts Clive Smith takes a closer look at the concept of the yield curve.

One of the accepted truisms in modern finance is that a lot of information can be derived from the yield curve. The US yield curve A positive sloping curve (as...

The Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and...

Over the last decade, lower interest rates have failed spectacularly in moving inflation. This brings into question the same approach for the years ahead, where...

With the now familiar ‘reflation trade’ (one of the more overused terms of 2021!) now evident, the resulting steeper interest rate yield curve is providing a happy...

The Reserve Bank of Australia has signalled its intention to more meaningfully utilise the unconventional and controversial monetary policy tool known as quantitative...

It’s often said that’s its darkest before the dawn and that certainly applies to markets. Only a few weeks ago bond yields were hitting record lows and the equity...

It is said that equity bull markets “climb the Wall of Worry”.. The third quarter of 2019 is an excellent example of exactly that. As the wisdom also goes, “there are...

In early August, we made the decision to move tactically underweight equities. Adopting a more cautious stance is perhaps not surprising given this is...

The rally in 10-year bond yields over the past six months has seen the spread differential between 10-year and 3-month bond yields fall to -30 basis points....

The conventional explanation from recent moves in bond markets is that global bond yields are collapsing because investors fear a global recession, triggered by the...

The bond market is often seen as the most accurate indicator of what lies ahead for an economy, or at least what investors believe lies ahead. If the current gyrations...

The recent inversion of the US yield curve has seen many interpreting this as the harbinger of a recession in 2020. Though such an inversion is a sign that investors...

The gold price in USD fell by 3% in the first half of August, declining below critical support at USD $1200oz, though it has since bounced back above this level. The...

2018 has been a fascinating year so far with many different cross-currents running through markets. We have seen central banks hiking, just as Governments look to...

Three key indicators we focus on for a health check of the US equity market are: 1) The direction of US leading economic indicators (as a guide to future earnings); 2)...

One of most reliable early warning indicators of an impending equity bear market is the shape of the US yield curve. When short-term interest rates are higher than...