forecasting

Their forecasts lure most investors into overconfidence – and thus losses. If you recognise experts’ biases, you can grasp opportunities.

Equity market volatility has been crushed. Does this lack of fear suggest complacency, or historically has this been a good time to invest?

Our economist Meghna Shah analyses the impacts of a Saudi supply disruption, utilising Indicio to model her forecast.

Static expected return forecasts lead to harsher drawdowns. Forward-looking forecasts produce more resilient portfolios.

Investors see it almost instantly when first searching a stock. Clearly, EPS is a hugely popular metric. But is it useful?

This week’s charts begin by visualising volatility in the foreign-exchange market over the decades

Find out who forecast the date of the real estate crash in 2008 years in advance - and why we should heed their advice about the next one!

Considering a valuation model for equity total returns, and how that can help investors understand what they own or might want to own.

It’s human nature that we tend to favour certainty in the stock market. But times of heightened uncertainty can lead to great opportunities for investors who position...

In the AFR I write that back in 2012 this column argued that notwithstanding a wealth of data on the history of military conflicts, and the so-called “correlates of...

In financial markets, predictions are ever-present and unavoidable. Yet investors worthy of the name don’t allow forecasts, including those of experts, to determine –...

Well, that wasn’t supposed to happen. Not after all the hand-wringing, ripping up the models and changed polling techniques that happened after the 2016 election. As...

It's results season, a lot of activity but any value? Every six months, the finance industry moves into a frenzy of pre, during and post-earnings analysis during the...

Early in my career, an important mentor of mine had a favourite saying, “I’d rather be lucky than smart”. At the time, I found this strange advice, as she was clearly...

It’s that time of year when inboxes get flooded with 2019 economic and financial market forecasts. As the CFA institute points out, at the beginning of 2018 the median...