Seema Shah

Latest news and analysis on Seema Shah

Macro

The stage is set for rate cuts

Despite economic uncertainty, markets rallied in the first half of 2024, driven by expected Fed rate cuts and surging AI stocks. The second half of the year is likely...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

US jobs report is consistent with a soft landing

Today’s jobs report is broadly consistent with the soft landing narrative. Monthly payrolls growth weakened slightly in June, and there were downward revisions to...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

What to expect from the Fed this financial year

Despite reduced Fed rate cut expectations for this year, the outlook for risk assets remains positive. The same economic strength that is delaying rate cuts should...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

2024: The year of elections

Recent election surprises in Mexico, India, and the European Union have underscored the volatility that can arise from unforeseen political outcomes. These events...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Federal Reserve dot plot is conflicted and open to persuasion

Recent focus has centered on the Federal Open Market Committee’s dot plot, which now suggests just one rate cut in 2024. However, a closer examination reveals the...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

Just one cut this year… but do they reeeeallly mean that?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the benchmark policy rate at 5.25%-5.50% today for the seventh consecutive meeting. More significantly, the latest dot...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
Macro

One step forward, two steps back - May Jobs Report

Payroll gains were hotter than expected in May, slamming the door shut on any hopes of a July policy rate cut. The latest jobs report showed that 272,000 non-farm...
Seema Shah
Principal Asset Management
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