US Inflation

Annualised core US inflation rose to 3.8% in January up from a 1.7% trough in July, although some economists point to US PCE still falling.

Barring last-minute changes, the US is imposing punitive tariffs on its close ally Canada, Mexico, and China, with a EU tariff to come.

The Fed expects inflation will take longer to return to target, with upside risks reflecting recent firmer inflation and Trump policies.

The Fed should forecast fewer rate cuts given firmer inflation, resilient economic growth, and the inflationary impact of Trump policies.

US inflation came in low. Services are still running hot, but that is mostly driven by housing costs. It would seem that the housing costs in CPI are probably...

Any delay in achieving the 2% inflation target points to interest rates staying high for longer

Wages growth has slowed a lot from its COVID peak, but the improvement looks to have broadly stalled recently.

Underlying inflation has picked up sharply in Q1 on a range of measures.

Higher core inflation will disappoint the Fed and shake optimism about risk assets.

The path of inflation returning to the Fed's 2% target remains "bumpy".

US core inflation picked up sharply at the start of the year.

With the latest PCE inflation data showing deepening disinflation amidst falling lending growth & M2, data doesn't support another rate hike

Weekly Update | 11th August, 2023

This week’s charts begin with a deep dive into Chinese real estate

Inflation has been kind of an enigma for the world over the past few years. Policymakers dismissed rapidly rising inflation early on and viewed it as transitory. It...

US core inflation remains persistently high.

With energy and fuel prices falling, global supply chain pressures easing and slowing food inflation, what's left to keep CPI higher?

US inflation and wages growth have peaked, but remain uncomfortably high for the Fed.

US inflation came in higher than expectations. Now, month-to-month inflation numbers can be volatile. But there are more than a few data points in this report that are...

US inflation came in around expectations. It is probably getting better, but there is still the opportunity to see what you want in the numbers. If your view is that...