unemployment

The RBA optimistically expects inflation will return to target without spare capacity emerging in the economy.

Could the economy be dodging a recession? New data suggests a softer outcome might be on the horizon

Soft landings are exceedingly rare in the US and the 1990s episode marks the only example of a successful soft landing.

Improving inflation is consistent with the Fed cutting rates next month, while a hawkish-sounding RBA plans to keep rates on hold.

Based on recent developments, we believe the likelihood of a recession occurring within the next 9 to 12 months is more likely than not.

Weaker demand for labour explains higher unemployment in most countries, but Australia's jobless rate has edged up on increased supply.

The US unemployment rate has edged above most estimates of the NAIRU for the first time since 2021, supporting a Fed rate cut next month.

Rising unemployment has almost reached the "Sahm rule" threshold that has historically been a useful guide to US recessions.

Falling job vacancies could see sharp increases in unemployment in the US and UK, while the EA and Australia look further from this point.

NZ unemployment continues to rise as employment falls.

For our first pack of new charts in 2024, we take a deep dive into historic trends.

On fixed rate bond exposure, now is not the time to have zero, but it is not the time to fill your boots.

This week’s charts begin with a historic look at US bond returns

The very tight labour market is still easing a little, ahead of key inflation data next week.

Weekly Update | 11th August, 2023

This week’s charts begin by visualising the steady increase in foreign workers hosted by historically immigration-averse Japan.

The RBA is worried by high inflation and wants to anchor expectations.

This week’s charts visualise different effects of inflation

Roll up, roll up, we have yet another labour force surprise. But it's not the surprise we are used to. The good news? For the first time since 1974, unemployment is...

With the RBA about to start raising rates for the first time since 2010, it will be trying to manage a challenging economic mix of very low unemployment and high...